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History Suggests Long Odds for Dems in NC Senate Race

Posted on December 29, 2021December 29, 2021 by yellowdogrising

North State Journal: “N.C. Democrats are confronting a trend working against them in the last 30 years of elections: they’ve won just two U.S. Senate races in that time frame. 

In the 10 U.S. Senate races in that time (1992, 1996, 1998, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2020) they’ve managed to win just twice, 10 years apart, in elections in 1998 and 2008. 

Democrats won both of those races by denying Republican incumbents a second term. 

John Edwards, a trial lawyer who burst on the state political scene, defeated Republican Lauch Faircloth in 1998. Edwards, of course, would go on to run for president twice and was John Kerry’s vice-presidential nominee in 2004. After a spectacular fall from grace, Edwards is back to practicing law in the state. 

Ten years after Edwards won, it was then-state Sen. Kay Hagan defeating an incumbent, Elizabeth Dole. 

That race, which was historic for featuring two women for a major statewide office, turned nasty and is best remembered for an infamous ad run by Dole’s campaign. That ad, which cited an endorsement from an atheist organization for Hagan, coupled with the energy and enthusiasm behind the coattails of Barack Obama, likely resulted in Hagan’s victory. 

In two cases, the state’s so-called “blue moon” elections could have resulted in wins for Democrats. The political environments in 2006 and 2018 cost Republicans nationally, losing both the House and Senate in ‘06 and the House in ‘18. With one-third of Senate races contested every two years, though, both years happened to fall with no race on the ballot for N.C. voters.”

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