WaPo: “All 100 seats in the House are on the Nov. 2 ballot. Democrats are defending a 55-45 advantage. Republicans need to flip just six districts to regain the majority they had enjoyed for a generation until Democrats snatched it in 2019, when voters turned out in massive numbers to express their dislike of Trump.
Control of the House probably hinges on Willett’s seat and a handful of others — almost all of them in suburban districts that could swing either way. It’s the same territory that will determine whether Youngkin or Democrat Terry McAuliffe wins the governor’s race.
“Elections in Virginia have long been won and lost in the suburbs,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. “The Democratic gains over the last four years have been concentrated in suburban districts.”
Many of those districts tipped blue by narrow margins — Willett won by a little more than four percentage points — and could easily swing back. That’s why Republicans are leaning into issues they say play well in the suburbs, such as the role of parents in schools.
“Trump exaggerated the extent to which Virginia is a Democratic state over the last four-plus years,” said Quentin Kidd, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University.
Before 2016, Kidd said, demographic changes in the state’s diversifying population had probably given Democrats a natural advantage of 2 to 4 percent statewide — provided everyone showed up to vote. Republicans tend to be far more reliable voters in off-year contests.”