Washington Examiner: “Asked by the podcast host if Tillis likely would have lost if Cunningham’s affair hadn’t been exposed, Bolger said, “Oh, I think so. I’m not taking anything away from Sen. Tillis or the campaign we run,” Bolger told McCrary, a Democratic pollster and partner at ALG Research.
But the Tillis campaign focused on the affair based on data in polling cross-tabs, raw numbers pollsters use to detect trends and from which to build out campaign strategies. The issue had resonance, polling showed.
“Even though we hadn’t take the lead, we cut into it. And what we found very clear evidence of was that the more people knew about it, the more likely they were to turn against Cunningham.”
That ended making the difference in the win by Tillis over Cunningham, 48.7% to 46.9%.
“I do believe if that hadn’t happened, Cunningham would have won,” Bolger said.”
For Democrats, the lost opportunity of the North Carolina Senate race has resonance today. Democrats did go on to win a Senate majority by the narrowest possible margin. A pair of wins in Georgia Senate runoffs on Jan. 6 left the Senate divided 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris on standby to break ties in Democrats’ favor.