Cook Political Report: “Earlier this year, it looked like Republicans were poised to double or triple the size of their thin cushion in the House by launching a mid-decade redistricting war. But they may have had a blind spot: the extent to which Democrats could push to set aside anti-gerrymandering constitutional amendments in blue states to fight back.
Now, if Virginia joins California in adopting a Democratic gerrymander to eliminate GOP seats, Republicans’ push to redraw district lines for 2026 could yield them little to no net benefit — or even backfire, in the event the Supreme Court upholds a three-judge panel’s ruling blocking Texas’s new map from taking effect.
There’s a ton of upside for Democrats in the Old Dominion. They won a robust state-level trifecta earlier this month, but Republicans still hold five of 11 House seats owing to a neutral map imposed by the Virginia Supreme Court in 2022 after the state’s new bipartisan redistricting commission deadlocked. With a few line changes, Democrats could easily flip seats held by GOP Reps. Rob Wittman (VA-01), Jen Kiggans (VA-02) and John McGuire”