NOTUS: “Kamala Harris’ emergence as her party’s new presumed presidential nominee immediately renewed hope among Democrats that they could win a quartet of battleground “Sun Belt” states that had seemingly slipped out of reach for Joe Biden.
But Democratic strategists who spoke with NOTUS also have a strong warning: If Harris can’t keep the Midwestern “Blue Wall,” there’s no chance in hell the Sun Belt states would save her.
“If Democrats lose the Blue Wall, then they lose, period. No matter what happens in Georgia, Arizona, it’s just not gonna happen,” Atlanta-based political consultant Fred Hicks told NOTUS. “So they absolutely have to hold the Blue Wall, number one. Number two, you want to hold as many Sun Belt states as possible.”
The battleground Blue Wall — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — are three states that supported Donald Trump in 2016 after two decades of Democratic dominance before flipping for Biden in 2020. And early polling generally shows them being more favorable for Democrats than the four swing states considered part of the Sun Belt: North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.
Democratic strategists say they’re excited that Harris can expand on Biden’s 2024 electoral map, forcing Trump to spend time and money in states he must win. But any effort to win the Sun Belt, some of them caution, shouldn’t come at the expense of the trio of Midwestern battlegrounds.”