Longleaf Politics: “North Carolina is used to high-dollar U.S. Senate races. The governor’s race could soon join that club.
As Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson continues to lay the groundwork for a 2024 run for governor, his campaign is signaling that it will take an unprecedented amount of money to win.
In a fundraising email, the Robinson campaign said it expects $100 million to be spent on the race — which would be a North Carolina record by a long shot. “I’ve been told that the Governor’s race will be the most expensive we have ever seen,” the email states, asking recipients to chip in….
What will 2024 spending look like?
Just for a little context, U.S. Senate campaigns are much more expensive because of outside spending from national groups. In 2020, U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis spent $24 million from his campaign fund and Cal Cunningham spent about $52 million. But with outside spending included, the race came in at a record-setting $300 million. That’s because both parties viewed North Carolina’s seat as key to their path to control of the chamber.
North Carolina’s 2024 governor’s race won’t come close to those numbers. But it almost certainly will become the most expensive in North Carolina’s history. With Cooper term-limited, the race is an open seat — meaning both candidates will have to spend considerable money building name ID statewide.
Look for the Stein campaign to spend somewhere around $50 million to $60 million.
I don’t see a path for Republicans to out-raise and out-spend Democrats in this cycle. The Democrat money machine is powerful and well-cultivated in North Carolina. Republican fundraising is far behind. But to stay competitive, the Robinson campaign will need to raise at least $35 million — a far greater number than any Republican gubernatorial candidate has ever raised before. It will be tough to get there, but it’s possible.
Outside spending will be a significant X-factor. Both candidates have a solid line on national spending: Robinson from his connections to the NRA and a rising national profile; Stein from his connections to Cooper.
All-in, a $100 million governor’s race is probably about accurate.”